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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."