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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.